Out with the old; In with the New
Contributed by: Dr Richard Benfield
As we end 2023 and move into 2024 it is clear things will not be the same as in 2023 and of course waaaaay different to the Covid years of 2020 – 22. Thus, it seems appropriate for the Garden Tourism Strategy Group to reflect on 2023 and to hazard some predictions for 2024. Bearing in mind hindsight is always 20-20 whereas as Yogi Berra said about predictions “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." With all due respect to Yogi, we at the GTG prefer the quote: “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
So, for 2023 as the final numbers come in it appears that 2023 was the best year ever for visitors to gardens in the UK and America. The American Public Gardens Association (APGA) estimates that in 2022 visitation was over 120 million to member gardens and in 2023 that number exceeded 130 million – an 8% rise over 2022. In the UK, no absolute aggregate figure is available but based on select garden attendance figures, the percentage increase in visitors would be the same. This 8% rise in garden visitors to Britain is in line with Visit Britain’s estimate for the whole of the British Tourist economy of 37 million visitors, up 7% from 2022. These 37 million visitor numbers is 96% of the 2019 figure suggesting Covid recovery is almost complete.
“US 2022 garden visitation was estimated at over 120 million to APGA member gardens and in 2023 that number exceeded 130 million – an 8% rise over 2022”
So what does 2024 hold?
Visit Britain forecasts 39.5 million visits and £34.1 billion spend, 97% and 120% of the 2019 levels respectively, although spend would be 96% of the 2019 level when you adjust for inflation. Compared to 2023, this would represent growth of 5% in visits and 7% in nominal spend (4% in real spend). In the United States growth forecasts are even more optimistic with growth in inbound numbers forecast to grow up 19%, prompting some analysts to predict 2024 will be the biggest travel year worldwide ever! In the US garden sector the fact that less than 1% of all visitors are from overseas suggests a great potential growth market! Airlines in the UK, Europe and America are similarly predicting 2024 will be a banner year. In all western markets. domestic travel is also predicted to grow, though not much higher than 2% in the USA and less than 5% in the UK even though expressed “desire to travel domestically in 2024” is up considerably from 2023.
So where does that leave gardens?
Well in the UK, potentially, many overseas tourists will come thru the gates (remember in 2013, 33% of overseas visitors wanted to see a UK garden). This creates the need for a targeted and we suggest primarily a local awareness campaign and then solid management of the garden when the visitor arrives, often with smart phone booking in hand. In the US, the dismal market share of overseas visitors who now come to a US garden would seem to necessitate an aggressive and targeted advertising campaign which, at its most basic, would appear to say “Yes, the USA has great gardens, and they are very affordable”
“Yes, the USA has great gardens, and they are very affordable”
So the stage is set … as we move into spring watch this space for some of those local, best-described as last minute moves to top of visitation and revenue while at the same time praying for fine warm summer days.
